Articles, Blog

One Storm Wanes as Another Comes: Solar Storm Forecast 11-08-2018

One Storm Wanes as Another Comes: Solar Storm Forecast 11-08-2018


we’re coming down from a solar storm
from some fast solar wind just in time to get ready for another one. that
story and more in the shortie this week. space weather this week has gotten very
exciting we had some fast wind from a coronal
hole that had rotated into the earth strike zone but it sent us the storm
almost a day late. nonetheless it was worth the wait because it bumped us up
to G2 storm levels and brought aurora clear down to wyoming. meanwhile we’ve
kind of been taking some time to settle down. we’re at unsettled conditions now
but it’s not going to last for long because we have yet another coronal hole
that’s going to be rotating into the earth strike zone and just like the last
one this one is also a repeat offender. but this time this coronal hole has
grown into some weird kind of shape here. it looks a little bit like a horseshoe
or maybe an H– you tell me what it looks like– but because of its strange shape it
may actually give us a one-two punch with a couple bursts of fast wind and
that could bump us up to storm levels starting around late on the 9th most
likely into the 10th, possibly with the second punch hitting even on the
11th. now I’m not expecting this storm to be nearly as strong as the other one. I
don’t expect G2 storm levels but it could give us some decent Aurora show
yet again. switching to our solar storm conditions and Aurora possibilities over
the coming week, we are anticipating the hit from the fast wind from that
coronal hole that’s going to be rotating into the earth strike zone. at high
latitudes we’re expecting at least minor storm conditions with even about a 60%
chance of a major storm starting around the 9th to the 10th. it’s kind of hard
to say because this coronal hole is shaped so strangely. if we get it the
one-two punch we might even get storming conditions lasting in through the
eleventh before things begin to calm down, especially at high latitudes. now
mid latitudes we’re only expecting active conditions, but we’ve got a decent chance
for minor storm conditions to hit and again this may linger until about Sunday
and into Monday before things really begin to calm down. it’s hard to tell but
we’re not expecting nearly the strength of the storm that we had just
less than a week ago but it should still be enough to give us some decent Aurora,
possibly down to mid latitudes. switching to your solar flare and particle
radiation storm outlook over the coming week, everything is still in the green
when it comes to solar flares. we have a spotless Sun right now and this means
good news for you GPS users. you should have great GPS reception on Earth’s day
side. now we do have a region that is rotating into Earth view off of the
sun’s east limb. it’s pretty dim right now and I don’t know if it’s gonna get a
number designated by NOAA, but it is upping the solar flux just a little bit. we
are back into the 70s for solar flux which means marginal radio propagation
for you shortwave responders and amateur radio operators. this is wonderful news.
I’ve been hearing some good communication on 10 meters and 20 meters
by the way this past week, so this should boost it up just a little bit more and
these conditions should last easily over the next few days, possibly over the next
week. now because we are at solar minimum, we are getting a higher penetration of
cosmic rays than we normally would so you frequent fliers, and this does
include the air crew, who fly more than 800 hours annually and who fly at high
latitudes and high altitudes, you are in the marginal range for radiation dose
right now and this does include to prenatal passengers so please take this
into consideration in your flight plans. so the space weather this week is
extremely exciting. we just came down from a moderate level solar storm that
brought aurora clear down to Wyoming and we’re gearing up for yet another
storm. now this coming solar storm probably won’t be as strong as the one
we just had, but it could be enough to bump us back up to storm levels starting
late on the 9th most likely into the 10th and possibly lingering into the
11th before things begin to settle down a little bit. it’s hard to tell with this
very strange shape of the coronal hole we’re getting so your aurora photographers,
keep your batteries charged because we might even get some shows briefly at
mid-latitudes. now you amateur radio and shortwave
radio operators, well you guys should be pretty happy. we’re
back into the marginal range for radio propagation and this could easily last
for the next week, and we have that bright region that’s rotating into Earth
view. so who knows, this may even last almost two weeks before things begin to
tank again. And then as far as you GPS users are concerned, well you know things
on the Earth’s day side look really good. the reception should be very clean and
then on Earth’s night side, well as long as you stay away from the aurora during
the solar storm on the 9th through the 11th and as long as you stay away from
the dawn-dusk terminators that are always a bit tricky,
your GPS reception should be pretty nice. i’m Tamitha Skov. thank you for watching.

23 comments

Forecasting Cosmic and Solar weather can't be easy given GSM and the waning Magnetosphere. Good job ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘

Tabitha, could we get your take (or a link where you talked about) on the solar minimum and how long it's going last? is it the GSM? And are we possibly entering into a mini ice age?
thank you

Dr skov, are we more at risk of the cme's and winds if our magnetosphere is waning? Can the large hadron collider cause this?(the magnetosphere i mean)Would love to hear your opinion, thanks. Love your channel by the way, i learn a lot from you.

Great show. How many more month of low SFI do you think there is going to be. Is it just me or does the shortwave reception conditions improve in the winter each year here in the US?

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *